Politics

Hillary and Bibi – Those are the new kingpins to a final deal with Iran

Hillary Clinton and Benjamin NetanyahuFor some reason, the P-5 plus 1 and Iran believe they closed the Iranian nuclear arms deal. What we are hearing from President Obama and Iranian President Rouhani is that they actually control the final deal. They are both delusional and shows a level of arrogance that is remarkable.

In order for there to be a deal, all ‘relevant parties’ need to agree.  Early today, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu blasted the deal and we have not heard a definitive public statement from Hillary Clinton.

Although we have not seen the complete details of the technical side, we do know the basic construct of the deal.  In the last-minute, the Iranians were able to insist on eliminating the conventional and ballistic missiles ban in 5 years!  They also have eliminated the logical insistence from the onset that the IAEA inspectors have the unfettered right to inspect military facilities.  Unbelievably, the P-5 plus 1 agreed to this even though the Iranians were caught cheating DURING the negotiations and had a secret nuclear arms facility being built at one of their military sites.  Striking is the only word I can describe the complete castration of the West.

All negotiations end of with compromise.  I get it.  However, there are always core principles that can never be compromised, and the U.S. blatantly violated them.  This alone is negotiating malpractice.  I can deal with some of the other ‘red lines’ that were broken to an extent to make the deal, but these two are unforgivable, especially under the circumstances that Iran cheated and they have promised that they want to destroy the State of Israel and drive all the Jews into the Mediterranean Sea.

Hillary Clinton is one of the two ‘kingmakers’ that can either pass this deal through Congress of scuttle it. If you enjoy politics, this will be fascinating.

Think about it.  President Obama is now irrelevant in this deal once he negotiated its terms.  It now moves on to other people because Obama will have zero power in 1.5 years.  However the presumptive Democratic nominee, Hillary Rodham Clinton, has all the power.  Why?  Because what will happen next is that Congress will vote on the deal, and the odds that it will be defeated by the Republican led Congress is high. At that point, it will go to President Obama who will veto the measure.  He already guaranteed that he would do it.  Then, Congress has the last ‘bite at the apple’ regarding the sanctions being lifted, which if not, unravels the deal, but they will need two-thirds majority of each chamber to override the Presidential veto.

Now here is where politics meets rubber with no weasel escape by flaccid Democratic politicians who would rather avoid going against the President.  Since Hillary will probably become the Democratic nominee, she has the ability to directly effect that last uphill vote if she comes out against the deal.  If she does, this puts many Democrats in a pickle. If they go against Clinton and votes for the deal, they will look week on defense and at odds with their potential next President.  That is an awful political position to be in. Also, if those Democrats are on the wrong side of the vote if it is close, they may not win their own seat in the 2016 elections.  One thing that drives votes is political survival and self interests.  So, Hillary’s position will be critical and it would be interesting to see what she says of the final deal once she peruses the 80 page document.

So far, behind closed doors, Hillary supposedly has endorsed the deal but added caveats that she has not yet seen the 80 page document.  This gives herself so time and ‘wiggle room’ to ‘put her finger out in the wind’ and determine what is best for her political interests.  Watch how this develops because her support will be critical to the deal and the elections in 2016 will be a huge issue on the table by detractors.

Regarding Israel, Did the world forget them?  If they did, what a huge miscalculation!  The Iranians are an existential threat to Israel.  No one can doubt it since the Iranians already stated this.  So, Israel will not allow any deal to come between them and their survival as a country.  No matter if their allies agreed to the deal, that does not mean that Israel will follow suit if it comes to their national interests.  Therefore, Bibi came out this morning and stated, “Israel is not bound to this deal because Israel will always defend its country.”  See the entire Netanyahu video of his reaction to this deal below:

So, Since Israel, like any other country, has the right to self-defense, they can decide to take actions into their own hands and attack the Iranian nuclear sites.  America nor another country can control this action. That is a fact.  If Israel alone decides that this will affect their survival at any time, they will take military action.  Then, the world is in a much worse place because the sanctions would have been already lifted. However, Israel will do what they need to do to protect their citizens and no pressure from around the world can prevent this.  They also have the military means to do it.  It just depends how far the Mullahs in Iran plan to retaliate, which would then cause catastrophic destruction to the country of Iran by Israel. Let’s not forget that Israel is major nuclear power and has been that way to prevent hostile countries attempting to destroy their country.  If anyone thinks that if Israel had to use the nuclear arsenal to protect themselves and they wouldn’t, they are simply naive.  Every country would.

I am in favor of a ‘good deal’ and hoped that we would strike it with Iran.  However, the fact that we gave away too much which may make this a more dangerous world with the proliferation of nuclear arms in countries like Egypt, Saudi Arabia and the UAE makes this a very dangerous proposition.

My hope is that the deal is voted down by Congress to give Obama the leverage he will need to tell the Iranians that some of the concessions made was a bridge too far.  A better deal is still therefore possible if Hillary and Bibi play their cards right.

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